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Charleroi

€41.50m

19 May19:30
1 : 1

OH Leuven

€29.65m

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Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction Jupiler Pro League

Charleroi vs OH Leuven prediction: form, tactics and value

The Charleroi vs OH Leuven prediction for Tuesday, May 19, 2026 (19:30 GMT) starts with a simple idea: this game looks set up for a home side that knows exactly what it wants. At Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Sporting Charleroi arrive with momentum in the Europe Play-Offs (Conference League group), while OH Leuven (OHL) travel still searching for stability.

Match overview and where the game may be decided

Charleroi have enjoyed a strong play-off run: 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five, with 8 goals scored and only 4 conceded. That sequence includes a tidy 1–0 win over Royal Antwerp, the sort of result that tells you the structure is working. OHL’s recent record reads far tougher: winless in five (2 draws, 3 losses), conceding 11 and scoring 4, with a 1–2 loss to Standard and a wild 3–3 with Westerlo showing both their spirit and their problems.

  • Standings context: Charleroi sit well higher in the group (around 27 points), while OHL hover near the bottom (around 19).
  • Squad value: Charleroi’s squad is priced at €41.50m vs €29.65m for Leuven, a gap that often shows over 90 minutes.
  • Head to head warning: the last meeting on 2026-03-14 ended Charleroi 0–2 Leuven, proof that OHL can hurt them if given space.

Tactical story: control vs. risk

Under caretaker manager Mario Kohnen (in since early April 2026), Charleroi have leaned on a disciplined 4-2-3-1. The shape is compact, defensively sound, and designed for quick counters rather than fancy possession for its own sake. It’s also helped by calm goalkeeping—Mohamed Koné has been vital when games tighten. Off the pitch, Charleroi’s staff has added experience too, with Marouane Fellaini joining the technical team back in December 2025.

Leuven, coached by Felice Mazzù, have tried to find attacking rhythm but keep paying for defensive errors. Conceding roughly 2.2 goals per game lately, they often look most dangerous when their wingers can attack the flanks and slip passes behind the back line. The issue is what happens after they lose the ball—too many opponents find direct routes into their box.

Charleroi vs OH Leuven prediction: odds, tips, and score call

Now to the numbers that matter for bettors. The main betting odds point to Charleroi as rightful favorites: Home win 1.5, Draw 4.9, Away win 6.9. That pricing fits the form guide, but the recent head to head result keeps the draw in play if Charleroi get cautious.

NerdyTips’ recommended bet

  • Best bet: 1X (Charleroi win or draw) at 1.14
  • Trust level: 8.5/10
  • 1x2 pick: Home win (1) at 1.5, trust 8.0

The 1X recommendation matches the match script: Charleroi’s structure travels well inside a game, even when chances don’t. And they have shown they can beat the market before—like that surprising 2–1 away win at Anderlecht on 2025-12-26 as 5.1 outsiders. Leuven also have an upset-minded memory, such as the 0–0 at Genk on 2026-04-12 at 6.9 odds, but they have not backed it up consistently.

Total goals and game flow

  • Total goals pick: Over 1.5 at 1.147 (confidence 3.7/10)
  • Correct score lean: 2–0
  • Half-time: 1–0

Stat forecasts also support a controlled home performance: 59% possession for Charleroi, 12 shots to 7, and corners projected at 5–2 (7 total). The on-target count (3 vs 2) suggests quality over chaos—plus 2 yellow cards each hints at a competitive, not reckless, tempo.

Final word: this Charleroi vs OH Leuven prediction leans home, with the safer 1X covering the one scenario Charleroi must avoid—getting caught by another Leuven punch on the break.

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AI Predictions
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OH Leuven no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Charleroi vs OH Leuven

1X -714

Charleroi to win or draw with odds of -714
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 -200

Charleroi is expected to win with odds of -200
8/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -588

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No 125

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U5.5 -345

Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

1.44
xG
0.84
59%
Ball Possession
41%
12
Total Shots
7
3
Shots on Goal
2
4
Shots Off Goal
2
5
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.39
Expected Goals
1.03
1.9
Total Goals
2.5
0.9
Goals Scored
1.1
1
Goals Against
1.4
51%
Possession
48%
12
Total Shots
10.2
3.9
Shots on Goal
3.4
4.5
Shots off Goal
3.8
10.6
Fouls
11.4
5.4
Corners
4
1.9
Offsides
2.4
2.1
Yellow Cards
2.22
416
Total Passes
379

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
3
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
2
Over 2.5 Goals
4
0
Over 3.5 Goals
2
3
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Charleroi
6 - 8 - 10
OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 14-Mar-26
0:2
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 24-May-25
2:1
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 26-Oct-24
0:2
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 29-Jul-23
1:1
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 10-Mar-23
0:1
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 27-Dec-21
0:3
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 27-Jan-21
1:1
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 06-Oct-12
0:4
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 06-Apr-13
3:0
OH Leuven OH Leuven
Charleroi Charleroi 18-Jan-14
2:0
OH Leuven OH Leuven

Profile time Recent Matches of Charleroi

23 MayW Standard L Standard L 0 Charleroi Charleroi 2
19 MayD Charleroi Charleroi 1 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1
16 MayL Charleroi Charleroi 0 KVC Westerlo KVC Westerlo 1
10 MayW Antwerp Antwerp 0 Charleroi Charleroi 1
02 MayW Charleroi Charleroi 2 Genk Genk 0
25 AprW OH Leuven OH Leuven 0 Charleroi Charleroi 2
21 AprD Genk Genk 1 Charleroi Charleroi 1
18 AprL Charleroi Charleroi 1 Standard L Standard L 2
10 AprW Charleroi Charleroi 2 Antwerp Antwerp 1
05 AprL KVC Westerlo KVC Westerlo 2 Charleroi Charleroi 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of OH Leuven

23 MayLOH Leuven OH Leuven 0 Genk Genk 2
19 MayDCharleroi Charleroi 1 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1
15 MayWOH Leuven OH Leuven 3 Antwerp Antwerp 0
08 MayLStandard L Standard L 2 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1
02 MayDKVC Westerlo KVC Westerlo 3 OH Leuven OH Leuven 3
25 AprLOH Leuven OH Leuven 0 Charleroi Charleroi 2
21 AprLOH Leuven OH Leuven 0 KVC Westerlo KVC Westerlo 2
18 AprLAntwerp Antwerp 2 OH Leuven OH Leuven 0
12 AprDGenk Genk 0 OH Leuven OH Leuven 0
04 AprLOH Leuven OH Leuven 1 Standard L Standard L 3

Belgium - Jupiler Pro League Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Team M G P
1 GenkGenk4057-5338
2 Standard LiegeStandard Liege4044-4637
3 CharleroiCharleroi4050-5034
4 KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo4050-5733
5 AntwerpAntwerp4043-4831
6 OH LeuvenOH Leuven4041-6023
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