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Everton

€450.45m

17 May15:00
1 : 3

Sunderland

€381.95m

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Everton vs Sunderland Prediction Premier League

Everton vs Sunderland prediction: late-season goals on Merseyside

Everton vs Sunderland prediction starts with context more than hype: Sunday, 17 May 2026 (15:00 GMT) is Round 37, Everton’s final home game of the 2025/26 Premier League season at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. David Moyes’ side sit 10th on 49 points and still have a thin thread of European hope, while Régis Le Bris has Sunderland 12th on 48 points, comfortable and playing with the freedom of a newly-promoted team that has already done its job.

Team news and the tactical shape of the game

Everton have looked good enough to trouble anyone, then loose enough to hurt themselves. The storyline lately is leads that won’t stay led: four straight matches dropping points from winning positions, including that wild 3-3 with Manchester City where Everton conceded in the 97th minute. The Toffees then followed it with another frustrating share, 2-2 at Crystal Palace. That pattern matters for betting tips, because it often pulls matches toward goals and late swings.

  • Everton absences: Idrissa Gana Gueye remains out (muscle issue, not serious but still unavailable). Jarrad Branthwaite is sidelined for the season (hamstring). Jack Grealish is also out for the season (stress fracture), though he is progressing in recovery.
  • Everton’s midfield solution: Tim Iroegbunam (22) has stepped up with Gueye missing, earning major praise from Moyes after standout displays, including against Man City.
  • Everton’s forward angle: Beto and Thierno Barry have found form at the right time. Barry’s two goals off the bench versus City added bite and competition up top.

Sunderland arrive with fewer nerves and a clear identity. Le Bris has leaned on a 4-2-3-1, and the double pivot of Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki has given them structure, with Xhaka’s leadership showing in how they manage phases without the ball. A 0-0 against Manchester United last time out was a neat example: disciplined lines, patience, and enough threat to keep the opponent honest.

  • Sunderland absences: Dan Ballard is suspended for the rest of the season after a straight red; the appeal was rejected. Romaine Mundle is out for the season (hamstring surgery). Backup keeper Simon Moore is out (broken hand).
  • Returning options: Bertrand Traoré and Nilson Angulo are back in the mix after minor knocks, giving Sunderland more rotation in the wide areas.

Everton vs Sunderland prediction and betting tips from NerdyTips

The market makes Everton favourites: home win 1.93, draw 3.75, away win 4.5. That fits the squad-value gap (€450.45m vs €381.935m) and Everton’s home motivation, but Sunderland have already shown they can travel—most notably the 2-1 win at Newcastle on 22 March when priced at 6.25.

What the numbers suggest (and why)

Our models lean toward a match with enough attacking volume to clear a modest goal line. Everton’s tendency to lose control late pairs with Sunderland’s organised transitions, making at least two goals feel more likely than a tidy one-goal script.

  • Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28 odds, confidence 5.7/10
  • 1X2 lean: Everton win (1) at 1.93 odds, confidence 2.3/10
  • Correct score: 2-1 Everton
  • Half-time call: 0-1 Sunderland

Game flow props to keep in mind

  • Possession: Everton 56% vs Sunderland 44%
  • Shots: Everton 13 (6 on target) vs Sunderland 10 (3 on target)
  • Corners: 8 total (Everton 5, Sunderland 3)
  • Cards: Everton 1 yellow, Sunderland 2 yellows

The recent head to head also points to competitiveness: the last meeting on 10 January finished 1-1, with Everton priced at 2.5 and Sunderland at 3.3. Put it all together and the sensible angle for this Everton vs Sunderland prediction is goals first (Over 1.5), then a cautious nod to Everton’s edge—provided they finally treat a lead like something to keep.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Everton didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Everton vs Sunderland

O1.5 -357

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -357
5/10

1x2 Tip

1 -108

Everton is expected to win with odds of -108
2/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -357

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -130

Both teams are expected to score
3/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -175

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

1.58
xG
1.32
56%
Ball Possession
44%
13
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
3
3
Shots Off Goal
3
5
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.39
Expected Goals
1.34
3.3
Total Goals
2.3
1.7
Goals Scored
0.9
1.6
Goals Against
1.4
42%
Possession
48%
11.6
Total Shots
12.2
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.1
2.8
Shots off Goal
4.5
10
Fouls
12.8
4.7
Corners
4.5
2
Offsides
1.7
2.11
Yellow Cards
2.5
371
Total Passes
366

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
3
9
Over 1.5 Goals
5
7
Over 2.5 Goals
3
4
Over 3.5 Goals
2
6
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
1
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Everton
9 - 6 - 4
Sunderland
Sunderland Sunderland 03-Nov-25
1:1
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 27-Mar-12
0:2
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 22-Nov-10
2:2
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 26-Dec-11
1:1
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 20-Apr-13
1:0
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 12-Apr-14
0:1
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 09-Nov-14
1:1
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 11-May-16
3:0
Everton Everton
Sunderland Sunderland 12-Sep-16
0:3
Everton Everton
Everton Everton 10-Jan-26
1:1
Sunderland Sunderland

Profile time Recent Matches of Everton

24 MayL Tottenham Tottenham 1 Everton Everton 0
17 MayL Everton Everton 1 Sunderland Sunderland 3
10 MayD Crystal P. Crystal P. 2 Everton Everton 2
04 MayD Everton Everton 3 Man. City Man. City 3
25 AprL West Ham West Ham 2 Everton Everton 1
19 AprL Everton Everton 1 Liverpool Liverpool 2
11 AprD Brentford Brentford 2 Everton Everton 2
21 MarW Everton Everton 3 Chelsea Chelsea 0
14 MarL Arsenal Arsenal 2 Everton Everton 0
03 MarW Everton Everton 2 Burnley Burnley 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Sunderland

24 MayWSunderland Sunderland 2 Chelsea Chelsea 1
17 MayWEverton Everton 1 Sunderland Sunderland 3
09 MayDSunderland Sunderland 0 Manchester U Manchester U 0
02 MayDWolves Wolves 1 Sunderland Sunderland 1
24 AprLSunderland Sunderland 0 Nottingham F Nottingham F 5
19 AprLAston Villa Aston Villa 4 Sunderland Sunderland 3
12 AprWSunderland Sunderland 1 Tottenham Tottenham 0
22 MarWNewcastle Newcastle 1 Sunderland Sunderland 2
14 MarLSunderland Sunderland 0 Brighton Brighton 1
08 MarLPort Vale Port Vale 1 Sunderland Sunderland 0

England - Premier League England - Premier League

Team M G P
1 ArsenalArsenal3769-2682
2 Manchester CityManchester3776-3378
3 Manchester UnitedManchester3766-5068
4 Aston VillaAston Villa3754-4862
5 LiverpoolLiverpool3762-5259
6 BournemouthBournemouth3757-5356
7 BrightonBrighton3752-4353
8 ChelseaChelsea3757-5052
9 BrentfordBrentford3754-5152
10 SunderlandSunderland3740-4751
11 NewcastleNewcastle3753-5349
12 EvertonEverton3747-4949
13 FulhamFulham3745-5149
14 LeedsLeeds3749-5347
15 Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3740-4945
16 Nottingham ForestNottingham3747-5043
17 TottenhamTottenham3747-5738
18 West HamWest Ham3743-6536
19 BurnleyBurnley3737-7421
20 WolvesWolves3726-6719
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